Nuclear Power Stations in a Warming World
Dungeness in Danger
by Dennis Leggett    

Appendix B                                    

Floods and flooding

Fig. 7, shows the area that could be flooded by a considerable breakdown in the sea defences of the Romney Marshes Natural Area.

The elements causing the threat are:

• wear and tear.
(Protection for much of the defence system, can last, without investment, for 10   to 15 years (1) 		 
• sea level rise   } see Appendices
(C) & (A)
• greater incidence of storms and surges.   
• more wave energy i.e. higher and/or more frequent waves.

The risks of inundation are difficult to assess. Extra money is available to strengthen the defences, including secondary structures inland from the frontal structures, but the resilience of the final products is arguable. Performance depends on risk estimates.

Errors can lead to disaster. In January 1953 a North Sea storm surge drowned some 300 people, and flooded almost 100,000 hectares with salt water in East Anglia and Essex. Possibly a change in wind direction saved London . Instead the surge drowned 1800 people in Holland (2) Subsequently the Thames Barrage was built to protect London. During the night of 16th Oct 1987, there could have been disaster at Dungeness Power Stations. The 'hurricane' struck at night. For that period of 24 hours low tides were at 00.00h and 02.00h the following day. The tidal range was small, suggesting neap tides.

Estimates of future frequencies and heights of surges and waves are not quantifiable. (See Appendix C). We can only expect them to increase. Additionally erosion and drift directions and rates may alter. Analysis of cost to risk benefit can create a sense of numerical order out of this chaos of chance, but ultimately the base lines of cost benefit are set by human economic and political choice.

The expedience of such choices is inapplicable for the Dungeness Power Stations where the social and environmental costs of error are irreparable.

1 Folkestone to Rye Coastal Defence Strategy Study
    H.R.Wallingford for Shepway District Council See Reference List No 8

2 Figures from Met. Office web site. See Reference List No 12

next:     Appendix C    (IPCC and Munich Reports)